Tuesday, October 26, 2010

BSU, Strength of Schedule, Margin of Victory, and Mutual Exclusivity... Spare me!

JAngry, you are the BIGGEST BSU apologist I've ever encountered, and to say that you are approaching this subject from an objective point of view is laughable. You also misrepresent my take on the whole matter... I won't be devastated or outraged if BSU goes and plays for a national championship. Good for them... If they win it... good for them. I will, however, wonder if one of the other top teams this year may also deserve a shot since they played a more difficult schedule from top to bottom. It's about the fact that there is NO fair way to determine what the top 2 teams are right now. You could put any 2 of the top 5 teams in the BCS rankings in the NC game, and nobody could justify leaving the other three out. Now prepare for my longwinded response to your claims. (Warning to those that have a life... you may just want to skip the rest and assume that I am right on these matters... just kidding, reading is fun-damental, so get to it).

Let's talk about BSU's schedule. 10 games on that schedule would be games that I'd expect ND (yes, the one that just got its ass handed to it by Navy) to dominate. Maybe not by 35 points a game (like we did against Nevada last year... in a season that featured yet another loss to Navy, or Hawaii in the year before after we lost to a powerhouse Syracuse team at home), but I would expect 2 TD wins in 10 games on that schedule. I don't blame BSU for being in a shitty conference, but it is a fact that they are in a shitty conference. I know it's not for lack of trying to join a better conference (going to the MWC is a step up for them... except that the PAC-10 took Utah away), but they are in a shitty conference and you can't just say 'they're trying to schedule tough games' and make that go away. Games against most of the teams in the WAC and teams like Wyoming and Toledo are scheduled as easy wins on most teams' schedules. The SEC may be overrated, but there's no denying that they have some of the most talented teams in the country and that they have a few legitimately good teams every year. Even Tennessee and Georgia are loaded with good players, they are not playing at a high level, but the average/bad teams in the SEC schedule teams like Wyoming/Idaho and most WAC teams in order to get a few easy wins after getting handled by the better teams in their conference. Look at Mississippi, by all accounts they are a bad SEC team... one of the worst, in fact. They lost to a 1-AA opponent to start the year. They scheduled Fresno State between Vandy and Kentucky to ease their transition into the tougher part of their conference schedule. A BAD SEC team took Fresno to the woodshed and beat them 55-38 (I think a 17 point win is pretty convincing, and for having a shitty SEC offense, 55 points is damn impressive). Look at Colorado (sorry Oracle, but they're not good this year... if it makes you feel any better, ND isn't good this year either)... They've lost all three of their Big 12 matchups but they took Hawaii (4-0 in the mighty WAC) and absolutely crushed them to the tune of 31-13. When you have a conference full of teams that average/bad teams crush on a fairly consistent basis, you open yourself up to speculation that you MAY not be as dominant as you think. My point about Texas being a "very good team" is based on their talent... they are loaded with talent, and that makes them dangerous. ND is loaded with talent too... this is why, when they play a decent game, they can take Michigan State to the brink even though they still have a long way to go in terms of being consistent. Texas is one of those teams this year that can beat almost anybody on a good day, but they have sucked in a couple of games as well. If you want, I can use your argument about VaTech to explain away Texas' woes... maybe they were on an emotional letdown after crushing Nebraska and they overlooked Iowa State... at least Iowa State wasn't a 4-3 team from 1-AA. Name one WAC team, aside from BSU, that has the talent to beat just about anybody? This is what makes the stronger conferences dangerous... there is more talent. Even the middle of the road teams in the Big 10/Pac 10/SEC can rise up and smoke someone when they put it together. Now, I agree that the SEC isn't as mighty as the 'experts' say, but it is hard to deny that they aren't one of the strongest conferences in the country from top to bottom. They have a very good record in bowl games, and they're undefeated in national championship games... I think they've earned some of their hype... I just don't think that they have 4-5 top-ten caliber teams every year like the damn preseason pollsters like to think. I do, however, think that they have 4-5 top 25 caliber teams pretty much every year. At this point... 7 games into the year, there are 6 SEC teams in the top 25... that's a conference FULL of land-mines. On the other hand, 66% of BSU's schedule is horseshit... and 50% of their out-of-conference schedule is horseshit as well. Having the 16.7% of their schedule that comes against one team that is currently ranked #23 and another that is unranked but pretty good, as a reason to walk into the national championship game is somewhat of a joke in my book. How can you say that I lack objectivity with regard to Boise State when I've continually praised them as a DAMN good football team (with a SHITTY schedule), and you say that you would deny Auburn outright for 'not being a complete team'? ND certainly didn't look like a complete team over the past couple of years (especially on Defense), but they looked unstoppable and impenetrable against Nevada last year (35-0) and Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl (49-14). It is results like these that make me wonder exactly how impressive Boise really is... Decidedly average ND teams looked AWESOME against two of the BEST teams in the WAC. I've already mentioned how Colorado destroyed Hawaii (4-0 in the WAC) this year too. This is why I think there's an argument for teams like Auburn (who has only had 2 games against teams that would be comparable in shittiness to the typical WAC opponents that BSU has been playing) to be ahead of them. Auburn has an amazing athlete at QB and they've beaten 4 teams that are CURRENTLY ranked. Oregon has beaten 1 team that is currently ranked and no other team has a winning record... they are getting the same treatment as BSU in the computers right now... it's not that BSU is not in a BCS conference... it's that their schedule SUCKS! Oregon's schedule has SUCKED so far... at least they have a couple of tough games coming up which will allow them to basically control their own destiny. BSU will have to hope that other teams lose. I'll tell you this, there are two reasons that I don't think BSU will lose before the bowl game... one is that they are very good... the other is that their opponents all suck. All of the other undefeated teams still have major tests left on their respective schedules... if they win out, they will make a better case for themselves. It sucks for BSU, but it is what it is... it is also WHY WE NEED A DAMN PLAYOFF!

Here's another point to ponder when you look at BSU's schedule versus anyone's schedule in the SEC/Big10/Pac10/Big12.... When Alabama played San Jose State, it was their first game of the year before what was supposed to be a big matchup with Penn State (#18 at the time). They obviously scheduled it as a tune-up game... basically a practice for them in order to work out the kinks before the Penn State game and before they get into the SEC schedule. Typically, in a game like that, Alabama (or any other team that basically schedules a soft opponent before a tougher opponent) wants to win the game convincingly without showing too much for their future opponents to get out of the game tape, and without getting anyone hurt. They really want their starters to come in, put the game away early, and make way for the back-ups to get some meaningful reps. They play with a bare-bones game plan as well. They are acutely aware that, while they want to look impressive, they want to do it with as little exertion as possible because they KNOW that they will have tougher games coming up. Now let's look at Boise State... because they didn't dominate Virginia Tech or Oregon State, and because VaTech hurt their credibility by losing to a 1-AA team, they KNOW that they have to absolutely skull-fuck every remaining opponent on their schedule. They will leave their starters in, run all of their gadget plays, and do whatever it takes to make their win over a truly shitty opponent look impressive. Maybe that makes the 3 point difference... Alabama doesn't give a shit about allowing a couple of points in an easy win, but Boise KNOWS that they need to run it up! Because of their TERRIBLE schedule, they can't really do much more to impress anybody and sway the voters... they need these other teams to lose a game. I think I actually made a case in my post that TCU, with a win over Utah, would probably leapfrog BSU (and rightly so in my estimation) in the BCS standings. TCU isn't an AQ team, so why do you think I'm an apologist for AQ teams? I couldn't care less about what conference you come from, but if you beat a schedule that features more good and talented teams, an undefeated run is more impressive because it is SO difficult to beat good teams every week. Right now, BSU has a schedule that includes ten teams that they are expected to win, and win easily. None of the other teams that are currently undefeated have a schedule like that. Auburn may not be crushing their schedule, but it has featured a lot of tough games. It makes more of an impression to me when a team can get through a schedule filled with land-mines than it does for BSU to walk through theirs. If BSU traded remaining schedules with ANY of the other undefeated teams, they would control their own destiny... unfortunately, they have NO good teams left.

I give BSU credit for trying to schedule a tough OOC slate, and they got credit for the wins, but VaTech losing to a 1-AA team (regardless of their emotional state) makes a strong case that VaTech was never a top-ten caliber team. When I say that they might beat BSU if they played again, it doesn't mean that I think they're a better team than BSU... Here is how I meant it: If VaTech played as well against BSU (on week 1) as they are playing right now, they probably would have been able to pull off the win. I don't know why that's far fetched... BSU needed a heroic come-from-behind drive after a VaTech clock management gaffe to win the game by 3. By all accounts it was ANYBODY's game! Boise may have improved as much, or more, than Va Tech, but it's hard to tell because they are playing such bad opponents... you can't deny that VaTech is playing better after losing to 1-AA JMU... they've obviously righted the ship, but they still haven't beaten anything other than mediocre competition in a less-than-stellar ACC conference. You give NO credit to MSU for beating Wisconsin, you give NO credit for Missouri beating Oklahoma. I think Wisconsin and Oklahoma are both better than VaTech. If Boise State had ANY more good teams on their schedule, they wouldn't have to hope that VaTech and OSU turn out to actually be good...

Was there ANY outrage when Cincinnati (an undefeated team from an AQ conference that beat Oregon State (badly), Illinois and Fresno State out of conference, got left out last year? There may have been outrage from a couple of Cincy fans, but just about everybody agreed that the Big East was pretty weak and that Cincy was not a real NC contender. There was really no shock when Florida decimated them in the bowl game either... and I don't care if Kelly had not just left the team... Cincy would have gotten rolled by that Florida team either way. The AQ status didn't help Cincy... actually, the fact that the Big East was weak last year HURT Cincy... just like it HURTS BSU! Why is that so hard to understand? If the SEC laid an egg for a year or two, they would probably be left out of the game... oh wait, that happened to Auburn when the computers decided that the Big 12 and Pac 10 had more worthy teams... BSU isn't the only victim of BCS bias, so quit saying that this is a unique situation... it isn't. If your conference sucks, you will probably need a little help to get into our current 2-team playoff... even if you're undefeated.

You say that all of the games in the SEC are (allegedly) difficult? Fair enough, but it is ridiculous to compare an SEC slate with a WAC slate... If you're in a conference full of good teams, that shouldn't hurt you. It seems that you would rather that it does. Let BSU in... forgive them for having such an easy road to the championship game... They have won so many games in a row that they deserve a shot or else it's unfair! I'd say it's unfair to leave a team out if they've managed to remain undefeated against a slate of good opponents with a couple of great ones sprinkled in. BSU had 4 opportunities to schedule ranked teams since their conference had NONE... they got 2 on their schedule (1 remains ranked)... if they wanted to make a better statement, they should have put 4 respectable teams (instead of Wyoming and Toledo, add Northwestern and Baylor) on. If you are in the Big 10 (4 ranked teams), Pac 10 (3 ranked teams), SEC (6 ranked teams), or Big 12 (5 ranked teams), you have a tough schedule to begin with... While I still think you should schedule at least one good team OOC, it is understandable if you want to schedule a WAC team in order to get a breather.

Finally, I DO NOT think that, if BSU gets left out, 'the BCS did the trick'! If the championship game were today (between Oregon and Auburn), I would not consider either team undisputed as champions... It has been that way in previous years too (Utah impressed the hell out of me after they beat Alabama... of course I could make the same excuse for Alabama's loss to a very GOOD Utah team that you do for VaTech's loss to a very BAD JMU team... they mailed it in after losing their shot at the NC game or some crap like that).

Anyways, you keep flying the Bronco flag... I will keep flying the flag for a Playoff and reasoning that strength of schedule is important... At this point, there is NO right answer for a 2-team playoff. That is and has been my point all along... BSU could be in the 2-team playoff... but there are a few other teams that have strong arguments as well!

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