- Margin of victory is VERY prevalent in 66% of the BCS formula. The human polls consider margin of victory. This is why the Harris and AP polls have Oregon/BSU at #1 and #2 respectively. These teams have passed the eyeball test for the human pollsters. The BCS tries to do a better job of considering strength of schedule and quality wins (based on the state of the season at present). Unfortunately for Oregon and BSU, the computers see Tennessee (correctly) as a TERRIBLE team and UCLA and Oregon State as mediocre teams. I'd say that is fair. The problem, as I see it, is that it seems like the computers, by taking margin of victory COMPLETELY out of the picture, don't give a team credit for administering an absolute beat-down of a team (whether they are average, poor, or great) while giving too much credit for beating a terrible team by 3 on a fluke play (see LSU before this week), or beating a 'good' team by 3 in relatively unimpressive fashion (Oklahoma over Air Force before Air Force fell out of the rankings). The early BCS results have a small sample size and generally work themselves out in the end, but there are flaws for sure. I think that there should be 'tiers' when it comes to margin of victory. If you beat a team by one score or less, it's a close win and you don't get any extra benefit. If you beat a team by 1-2 scores (8-14 points), you get a small boost for administering a more convincing win. Anything over 14 points gets the maximum boost for basically establishing your clear dominance over a team. I know that this may lead to teams scoring an 'eff-you' touchdown to obtain those style points, but that's fine by me... it's a risk reward proposition... Imagine if Oregon tried to score an eff-you td and lost their stud RB in the process? Or if Boise, in trying to run it up, lost their QB?
- Texas has clearly established that it is NOT a Big 12 Powerhouse this year... actually, the big 12 has begun to establish that it is really not that great overall... that said, I was impressed with Missouri, but more on that later....
- I will return to a familiar argument regarding your beef about Auburn being #1. If you have two basketball players and they each take 8 shots, one of them taking 6 layups a freethrow and a 20-foot jumper, and the other taking one layup, 5 freethrows, and 2 twenty foot jumpers, which one is the better shooter? Let's add that the guy that took all of the layups made every one of them easily and seemed to be comfortable with the freethrow while rattling home the jumper, and the other guy rattled home a couple of the freethrows and one of the twenty foot jumpers... I think anyone would say that you really couldn't say who is better based on that... I think this analogy works for football... Throw Missouri, Michigan State, Utah, TCU, BSU, Auburn, Oregon... hell, even Alabama in the mix. The eyeball test makes me lean towards Oregon being a sure thing, but they have beaten Stanford and a bunch of teams that (based on their records) are pretty average to flat-out terrible. The same could be said for BSU and pretty much every team on this list. Some have better degree of difficulty than others, but I wouldn't want to definitively say that BSU would easily 'handle' Missouri. I think it'd be a hell of a game. BSU only beat VaTech by 3, and I tend to agree with the guy that said if VaTech played them as they've been playing lately, the outcome may be different (similarly, I think Oregon would have fared better against them when they got on a roll at the end of the year last season). That said, they had their chance and failed, so kudos to Boise, they got it done when it mattered... all of the rest is just speculation. I think that this point is why a playoff is so necessary for college football. I want these teams to play each other instead of spending the whole year wondering if that 1-loss Alabama team really deserved to jump BSU to #2 and play for a national championship against Oregon after beating undefeated Auburn and avenging their loss to South Carolina in dominating fashion... Or, to go to things that have actually happened: Would Auburn have beaten USC in 2004? Was USC better than LSU in 2003? Was a team like USC in 2002, who lost 2 close ones to good teams early before hitting their stride and playing like they were the best team in the country at the end of the season, have been able to play their way into a national championship game in a playoff scenario? What about Ohio State in 2005 when they lost a heartbreaker AT Texas early in the year, but, unfortunately, put on a show against a very good Notre Dame team to finish the year... I'd have LOVED to see that rematch with Texas. Seriously, a playoff MUST happen! Sorry for the run-on sentences and lack of paragraphs on this one, but I was rolling... sue me! Oh, and just because I used them so many times in my examples, it doesn't mean I'm a USC apologist... I loathe USC, but know that it would be absurd to say that their cheating asses weren't damn good in those years.
- I think BSU is getting PLENTY of credit from the human polls. They're ranked #2 in both of them (all three if you include the coaches poll). The computers don't like them because they put a premium on strength of schedule and degree of difficulty. I like this because I hate how teams in the 'Power' conferences schedule a bunch of absolute cupcakes (which actually works against BSU since these 'power teams' will avoid BSU and other strong teams from weak conferences like the plague) out-of-conference and cite their 'tough conference schedules' as the reason that they need to have some easy games sprinkled in.... I really like degree of difficulty as strong component of a team's overall ranking... the problem is that there is a lot of nuance that a computer can't account for... What's more impressive: Oregon's CRUSHING of Tennessee or MSU's ten point win over Wisconsin? Both were impressive... my eyeballs tell me that Oregon's dominance (and BSU's) is not an accident and it is damn impressive to beat teams that easily... no matter how crappy they are. At the same time, it is very impressive to go toe-to-toe with an excellent football team and beat them by 2 scores (which Oregon did against Stanford). I think the human polls are closer to being right, but I will return to my opinion that the human polls should not be officially recognized, or even posted, until at least half-way through the season. This allows the voters to provide fresh perspective for their first cut at the polls based on actual play instead of speculation and extrapolation based on last year's results and recruiting rankings which leads to pride getting in the way of admitting you were dead wrong about Florida being #5 in the country until they've looked shitty for about 5 weeks. After 6-7 games, you can get a good feel for which teams are really good, and which teams aren't and the first set of official human polls would be much more accurate and unbiased.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Counterpoint on Margin of Victory... but the BCS and Automatic Qualifiers still suck!
Justin, I agree with most of your post, but I want to make a few points. I'll just go point by point on this:
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There is absolutely no excuse for any system that ranks Oregon at 8. Period.
ReplyDeleteAuburn may have won all of there early games, but not convincingly. They're banking in their free throws, in your analogy. Meanwhile, Boise St isn't just laying up. Their driving the lane and going behind the back, 360 reverse jam and shattering the backboard.
Note that Boise and Alabama (the team you would jump them over with one loss) have a shared opponent in SJ State. Both dropped 48 on them, but Alabama gave up a field goal at home and Boise blanked them away. I'm not saying a huge edge to Boise here, but I am saying that Boise has proven they belong.
So first the VaTech win wasn't convincing enough. Then VaTech was a complete joke after a 1-AA loss (which I said was a fluke). And now it's "VaTech would probably beat them if they played now". Freakin' COME ON. Just admit that you refuse to allow for Boise to get the respect they deserve. You'll jump anyone and everyone from an AQ conference ahead of them, even teams they've ALREADY BEATEN this season. I'm with Herbie on this one. I have no love for Boise, and 3 years ago, I wouldn't have thought having them in the conversation was conceivable. But the system is what it is, and they're a DAMN good football team that plays inspired and just keeps doing what is asked of them week in and week out. Shutting them out of a title shot just because the program lacks the pedigree to land them a spot in a major conference is a mistake.
OK seriously Justin... I've repeatedly said, in this post no less, that BSU is an excellent football team. I'll use your breakdown of my logic re: VaTech against you... First you say that BSU is better than Alabama because they won 48-0 while Alabama won 48-3, so now that JMU beat VaTech by 4 while BSU only won by three, I guess that makes JMU the better team, right? OF COURSE JMU beating VaTech was a fluke, but it still happened. Wouldn't you agree that VaTech would SMOKE JMU today? Is that so hard for you to admit? Of course they would, but the fact is, THEY DIDN'T. This shows that they are a beatable team. You stretch the truth when calling out my logic based on VaTech. BSU won by 3 against VaTech in a game that EASILY could have gone the other way. When they turned around and lost to JMU (a team that is 4-3, 3-3 against other 1-AA teams, I might add), it devalued BSU's victory. I understand that VaTech was flat after that game and heartbroken for losing it, but ANY good team would be able to snap out of it and pick up a win against a middle of the road 1-AA team. It was pretty damning... the only reason it was a fluke was because VaTech played so badly... but JMU led for pretty much the whole game... do you think BSU would have lost the next week to Wyoming had they lost to VaTech? I don't, but if they did, I'd keep them out of the rankings until they started dominating people again. I'm talking about ACTUAL RESULTS! I wouldn't rank VaTech ahead of BSU, I just think that they MIGHT beat them if they were given another chance. I still have BSU in my top 5 teams (which are all a toss-up head-to-head). There's a big difference between saying I think a team can beat another team, and ranking them higher. When I said that I think VaTech could beat BSU with the way that they've been playing lately, what I am saying is that if VaTech had played THEN as they are playing now, they would have been able to overcome that 3 points... as it is, they lost, then they lost to a bad 1-AA team. Virginia Tech is playing like a good team now, but they have given plenty of reason to doubt that they're a GREAT team. I don't understand how you still consider BSU's win over VaTech as if they beat a top-ten opponent, but you give no credit to Auburn for beating TWO opponents that were ranked in the top ten in the last couple of weeks. I understand that LSU hasn't passed the eyeball test, but their near-loss against Tennessee is still better than VaTech's actual loss to JMU. If BSU gets shut out of a title shot this year, it won't be because they were NOT in a good conference, it's because they played an easy schedule, and someone else played a more difficult one. There are very few scenarios in which I would leave them out and all of them would include another undefeated team that has played a better schedule... I have stated that I could see Alabama jumping them in a 'perfect storm' scenario, but that doesn't mean I agree with it completely. BSU is a DAMN good football team and it would be a shame if they didn't get a shot at the championship... the problem is that there are only two slots in the game. If there are 5-6 undefeated teams, many of them (including TCU) would have more impressive resumes based on degree-of-difficulty. You could make an argument for ANY of them to be in the top 2. A playoff is needed. I wish you'd quit reading my posts as if they're from an 'I hate BSU and want them out of the Game' point of view, and start reading them from the point of view that they actually come from... 'BSU is a good team, I'm not sure if they're better than all of the other undefeated teams that have beaten more quality opponents, the only way to actually find out is for them to face off in a playoff'. Your comment makes me think that you didn't even read my post!
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