Tuesday, February 8, 2011

How good is Aaron Rodgers?

I will note that I am a die-hard Packer fan, but I don't think that my fan bias has anything to do with this analysis. I want to take Aaron Rodgers' superbowl performance and put it into perspective as well as discuss why I think that he may be the best QB that Green Bay has ever had... and he has the ability to become an all-time great if he can stay healthy for a long career.

First, let's take a look at his Superbowl performance. He was simply brilliant in this game... of course, I've had the pleasure of watching him play at this level on a somewhat consistent basis. On the day, Rodgers was 24-39 for 304 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs... against the best defense in the league. This doesn't tell the whole story though. Anybody that watched the game saw that there were more yards and points to be had if not for some costly drops. There were 5 drops in the game on perfect throws that didn't require any kind of heroics for a catch:
  • On the first drive of the day, Jordy Nelson let a perfectly thrown ball go straight through his hands. This was on a 3rd and 7 and Pittsburgh brought a good blitz. Rodgers made an unbelievable throw that would have gone for a minimum of 35 yards and set up a first and goal.
  • On the first drive of the second half, with the Packers up 21-10 on 3rd and 6 from their own 24, Rodgers threw another PERFECT pass directly into the hands of James Jones... this was a 76 yard TD if Jones hauls it in. He had beaten the coverage and there was nobody over the top... This pass would have completely changed the complexion of the game... instead the Packers had to punt and the Steelers scored to make it a close game.
  • On the second drive of the second half, score 21-17, 2nd and 7... Rodgers throws yet another dart directly into the hands of Jordy Nelson... The would-be 12 yard first down completion was negated and the Steelers got a sack on 3rd and 7. This would have bought valuable field position and allowed Rodgers a fresh set of downs...
  • On the fourth series of the second half, score 21-17, 3rd and 10 from their own 13, Rodgers threw ANOTHER perfect pass to Brett Swain (our 6th string WR). This was a bad call, but they said that he dropped it instead of what looked like a catch and fumble... Anyways, had he simply hung on to the ball, it would have been a 1st down and it would have moved the Packers into much better field position.
  • On the next series, the Packers got the ball back on the fumble recovery and Jordy Nelson dropped what would have been a 40 yard TD. Fortunately, this was rectified on the next play as Nelson caught a 38 yarder that set up the Packers last TD of the game... this is the only drop that didn't KILL a drive.
So, if you add that up, (and I'll even negate the effect of the last drop since they ended up scoring on that drive anyways), Rodgers could have been 28-39 for 438 Yards and 4 TDs (at least, since he would have had more attempts after extending 3 of the drives). That would have equated to a QB Rating of 142.9... absolutely ridiculous! But wait, there's more. This is something that I've noticed about Rodgers since he took over the Packers... he simply makes great throws seem routine. Of his (should be) 28 completions of the game, there were only 2 that required a receiver to adjust his stride or dive for the ball. One was a 1 yard completion to Crabtree (3rd string TE) on the last drive of the game, and the other was a 3rd and 7 completion to James Jones in which he had to go to the ground for the ball... of course, a low throw was required on this ball, but he could have given it a little more air... it wasn't a difficult catch. That makes 26 of 39 passes which were absolutely on the money. Further, his incompletions included 4 throw-aways in which he intentionally threw it in an uncatchable area to avoid taking sacks and 4 of what I'll call 'near-misses'. These included one that was broken up on a great effort by a linebacker, one that could have been a TD on the last drive and was on Nelson's finger tips... some were calling this a drop, but I'll call it a near-miss as it would have been an GREAT catch. Another one got to Jennings a bit too early on a back-shoulder throw... it was early because Rodgers had to get rid of it early to avoid getting sacked, and another one missed Swain by about 6 inches. This leaves 3 throws that were off target... out of 39! Another thing that I've grown accustomed to is that Rodgers rarely makes poor decisions with the ball... it is definitely the exception and not the rule with him... in this game, he made exactly 0 poor decisions with the ball. OK, now that I've provided my analysis of what was one of the most impressive performances in Superbowl history, I will get to why I believe Rodgers is better than Favre was and only needs longevity to be considered an All-time great.
The Superbowl really just featured exactly what I've seen in Rodgers since he took over. He is incredibly accurate, smart with the football, quick on his feet, and he has an unbelievable release. Unlike Favre, Rodgers rarely makes poor decisions with the ball. Nearly every game, Favre will make at LEAST one or two throws that go directly to the defense. The defender may not come up with the catch (as they are usually fastballs), but Favre was a gunslinger. It was what made him great, and what gave him the record for most INTs ever. Even at the top of his game, Favre would make terrible decisions with the ball at least a couple of times every game. When Rodgers makes a bad decision, it is a shock... when Favre did, it was basically expected... we just hoped that the defense wouldn't make the play. Rodgers also has better accuracy than I've seen in anybody. It is unbelievable how good he is at hitting guys in stride... So often, he puts the ball so perfectly on the money that it looks like the player actually accelerates into the ball and is shot out of a cannon. I think his accuracy is a big reason for the tremendous amount of yardage that is gained after catches. If you look at his TD's to Nelson and Jennings in the first half, or his 31 yard dart to Jennings on the final drive of the game, you will see what I mean... I've simply grown accustomed to seeing him make those throws on a regular basis. Again, when a WR has to adjust, it is the exception, not the rule. Rodgers has a tremendous arm... Favre probably has a SLIGHT edge in arm-strength, but it is close. He also has the quickest release I've seen since Dan Marino. All told, he's the total package. As long as he remains healthy, he will be an elite QB. If he plays this way for 10 more years, he will be a sure-fire hall of famer... considering how easy he makes it look, I think the only thing that would stop him is injury.