ND vs "THE SEC"

Ahhhh, the Thirsty Scholars.  That whole pursuit of the National Championship thing may become a reality in a few short weeks.  As always, I have an optimist's outlook about Notre Dame football, but this team goes beyond the blue and gold kool-aid that I've consistently drank throughout my life.  This ND team has a real opportunity, and I think as good of a chance as their could be to win another National Championship.  I love this team.  All that said, the storyline has constantly become "Notre Dame vs. The SEC".  I understand that Alabama has to play Georgia, and the winner of that game will, in all likelihood, be our opponent in Miami, but if you ask anyone that is a fan of ANY team in the SEC, they will tell you that ND's opponent is "The SEC".  It's what drives me nuts about this conference more than anything else.  It doesn't matter if you're a Bama fan, an LSU fan, an Auburn fan, a Kentucky fan... you name it.  They will ALL take credit for the national championship if ND fails to close the deal on the 7th of January.  I'm convinced it's a huge inferiority complex, and that these fans, if their team doesn't succeed in defeating their bitter rivals, or winning their conference, need something to cling to.  Their medicine, what helps them sleep at night, is knowing that, even if their team isn't the best in the country, one of the teams in their conference is... and that somehow makes them better than everybody else too.  I took the liberty of looking up a few things about the mighty SEC as I would like to address the idea that every SEC fan likes to state as reality.  That idea is that somehow ND would be lucky to finish about .500 in SEC play, and that they'd be about the 7th best team in the SEC.  It goes along with the idea that ND hasn't accomplished anything because they haven't beaten a 'mighty' SEC team or played in a conference.  So here's what I did... I took the 6 SEC teams that are in the top 10 in the rankings, and I broke down their schedules.  Any BCS conference team that finished above .500 was considered a 'tough opponent'.  Any FBS team, or team from a non-AQ conference with no discernible believability as a team that could compete with even mediocre teams was coded as an 'absolute cupcake'.  Finally, BCS opponents were broken down between those with losing records, and those with .500 records.  I went a little deeper with the 'tough opponents' by looking at who they beat in order to get to their winning records.  This sometimes revealed that these teams were not as 'tough' as you'd like to believe.  So here goes nothing:

Alabama:  These guys are everybody's Goliath.  They've basically been penciled in to play us in Miami, and they are very impressive.  They rank 78th in pass offense, 22nd in Rushing offense, 15th in points for/1st in Points against):

Tough Opponents (4):

• Michigan 41-14.  Probably the most impressive win in a dominant performance.
• Mississippi State 38-7.  They were 8-4 overall and 4-4 in SEC.  Their losses were to Bama, A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss... none were close.  Additionally, their most impressive win was 10 point victory over 5-7 Tennessee... hmmm... maybe they aren't so tough after all.
• LSU 21-17.  LSU outplayed them, and LSU's usually anemic offense looked very good in this game.
• A&M 24-29 loss at home.
• Georgia is TBD.

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• W Kentucky, Florida Atl, W Carolina - These teams are undeniably awful.  I wonder if the fact that Bama only gave up 7 points total in these contests could inflate their defensive stats... I also wonder if that may have made the less than 1 point difference in points allowed per game that they have over ND... just speculation.

 BCS Opponents with losing records (4):

• Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn - 17-31 overall record.

BCS Opponents with .500 records (1):

• Ole Miss - Ole Miss's only OOC game against a non-FCS opponent was a 66-31 loss to Texas... They're not good folks.

Georgia:  Well, they're the SEC fans' backup plan.   They have a balanced offense at 35/39th in pass and run offense and they are 17th in points for and 16th in points against.   Let's see why....

Tough Opponents (3):

• Vanderbilt 48-3.  I know what you're saying... "Vandy?  VANDY???"  Well, I have to be fair, they are in the mighty SEC and compiled a 8-4 overall record and 5-3 in the SEC.  Here's the rub though... They lost by 10 to Northwestern, and didn't beat a single team in a BCS conference that sports a winning record.  Their best win was against a 6-6 Ole Miss squad by a whopping 27-26 score.   So Vandy's probably a paper tiger, but they meet my 'tough opponent' criteria.
• South Carolina 7-35.  Yeah, so Georgia got smoked in this one.  I'll get to South Carolina's resume later as I continue to break down the SEC confirmation bias.
• Florida 17-9.  This is Georgia's signature win.  Florida turned the ball over 6 times in this game and only lost by 8.

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern - As a side note,
  Georgia Southern conspicuously is a triple option team and was scheduled one
  week before Georgia faced Georgia Tech... coincidence?  You don't suppose they wanted a live scrimmage against triple option before they faced a triple option team, do you?

BCS Opponents with losing records (4):

• Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn - 15-33 overall record, but they were all SEC teams.

BCS Opponents with .500 records (2):

• Ole Miss and Georgia Tech.  Ole Miss has been explained above, and Georgia made sure to get their live scrimmage to practice for the Georgia Tech game.

LSU: Well, LSU is a team that wins a lot of games, and they do it ugly.  Their pass offense is 94th and run offense is 46th in the country.  55th in points for, 11th in points against.

Tough Opponents (6):

• Washington 41-3. They were 7-5 with a terrible offense.  I will say that they have impressive wins over Stanford and Oregon State.  They offset these wins with losses to Wash State and Arizona. This is a very inconsistent team.
• Florida 6-14.  A loss in an SEC classic.
• South Carolina 23-21.  Just how Les Miles drew it up.
• A&M 24-19.  A big win after Johnny Football coughed up 3 INT's and a 12 point lead in the second half... there's your Heisman moment.
• Bama 17-21.  I think LSU's best game was in a loss... They're like 2005 ND. 
• Miss State 37-17.  As I said before, Miss State is not good.

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• North Texas, Idaho, Towson.  142-50 combined score... how is LSU's offense rated so low when they get to pad their stats against these awful teams?  Towson actually played them close... TOWSON.

BCS Opponents with losing records (2):

• Auburn/Arkansas.  Both of these were classic 1 score victories by Les Miles over shitty teams.  The 12-10 stinker against 3-9 Auburn really stands out. 

BCS Opponents with .500 records (1):

• Ole Miss 41-35.  Once again, Ole Miss is a really bad team, but they were within a TD of LSU.

Florida: Florida may have the best resume of any SEC team.  They are pretty bad on offense with the 118th ranked passing attack to balance out their 35th ranked rushing attack.  They don't score many points, but they don't allow many either.  76th in points for and 3rd in points against.

Tough Opponents (6):

• A&M 20-17.  Johnny Football got shut out in the second half... another Heisman moment.
• LSU 14-6.  
• Vandy 31-17.  As stated before, Vandy's not really that tough.
• South Carolina 44-11.  Florida's signature victory for sure 7 SC turnovers helped.
• Georgia 9-17.  The turnover pendulum swung the other way on this one.
•  FSU 37-26.  FSU's only semi-impressive win was against Clemson.  They played a cupcake schedule both in and out of conference.  Florida needed a 24-6 4th quarter to come back to win this one.

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• Bowling Green 27-14, U-La-La 27-20, Jacksonville St (23-0)... they scheduled U-La-La and Jack St back to back before they played FSU.  That's 2 live scrimmages to recover from their tough SEC slate.  Also, they only scored 1 offensive touchdown against Jacksonville State.  Could SEC defenses not only be overrated based on shutting down some horrible teams, but also based on some really bad offenses?  I'm just saying...

BCS Opponents with losing records (3)

• TN, KY, Missouri.  Awful.

South Carolina: Okay, here's their statline: 74th Passing/83rd Rushing offense, 40th points for/14th
points against.  Impressive, huh?

Tough Opponents (5):

• Vandy 17-13.  Did I mention that Vandy is not very good?
•  Georgia 35-7.  Signature win. 
• LSU 21-23.  Signature loss.
• Florida 11-44.  Not pretty.
•  Clemson 27-17.  Clemson lost to FSU and had a very easy schedule with no wins against good teams, but they do have Tajh Boyd

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• ECU, UAB, Wofford.  Wofford was tied at 7-7 into the 4th quarter against them until South Carolina pulled away with 17 unanswered points.  South Carolina was outgained in this game... by WOFFORD.

BCS Opponents with losing records (4):

• Missouri, Kentucky, Tenn, Arkansas.  These teams look familiar?  They're the ones that lose to teams with winning records.

A&M:  Johnny Football's team.  I'd like to note that the Mighty SEC made claims that Texas A&M, as a middling Big 12 team that had to replace its starting QB with a redshirt freshman would get crushed this season when they had to face said mighty SEC.  Here are their stats: 14th passing/13th rushing offense, 4th points for/30th points against... maybe the SEC defenses aren't so bad after all... maybe their offenses are as bad as advertized.

Tough Opponents (5):

• Louisiana Tech 59-57.  La Tech is a 9-3 WAC team with 0 wins against remotely good teams and the worst scoring defense in the country.  They were ranked for a while though.
• Florida 17-20.  Johnny Football got shut out in this one... strike a pose.
• LSU 19-24.  Johnny Football took a 12-point lead into the second half, then threw 3 INT's.  Give that man the trophy!
• Miss St 38-13.  Did I mention that Miss State is not very good? 
• Bama 29-24.  AKA the only reason Johnny Football is on your Heisman ballot.

Absolute Cupcakes (3):

• SMU, So Carolina State, Sam Houston St - Johnny Football had 735 passing yards, 10 passing TD's, 302 rushing yards, and 6 rushing TD's against these horrible teams.  Send him to New York for his brilliant play against all the tough teams!

BCS Opponents with losing records (3):

•  Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas -- all blowouts.  J Footy racked up 1085 passing yards, 8 passing TD's, 261 rushing yards, and 6 rushing TD's against this amazing gauntlet.  Your Heisman favorite racked up 55% of his passing yards, 75% of his passing TD's, 50% of his rushing yards and 63% of his rushing TDs against the half of his schedule that consisted of cupcakes and losers.

BCS Opponents with .500 records (1):

• Ole Miss 30-27.  Mr Football only had 1 passing/1 rushing TD in this game to go with his 2 INT's.  Funny how all of his turnovers came against teams that had at least a .500 record. 

So, that's your mighty SEC.  To be fair, I'll look at ND's schedule and see where they fall into place.  I'm sure it'll just prove why ND would not stand a chance against a gauntlet like these guys face, right, RIGHT?:

Notre Dame: Well, I'd first like to state that you'll notice that Notre Dame has a few features that are missing from the breakdowns on the SEC teams.  One is FCS teams.  ND doesn't play them.  Our cupcake plays Division 1 football.  Another missing feature is losses.  ND doesn't have any.  We have stats that look similar to Alabama's in every way except scoring offense: 78th Passing yards/27th Rushing yards, 76th points for/2nd points against.  The defense jumps off the page, and the offense indicates a hard-nosed ball-control attack... isn't that what the SEC does?

Tough Opponents (6):

• Michigan 13-6.  Ugly win for us in a Golson's worst game as a starter.  We were up by 10 for most of the game, and this was certainly a growing opportunity for our Redshirt Freshman QB.
• Miami 41-3.  Miami's not really that good, but they're 7-5 BCS conference team with a good pass offense.  I think they'd match up just fine with Vandy or Miss State. 
• Stanford 20-13 in OT.  They are a legit top ten opponent with a win over Oregon in Eugene and a top-10 defense.  I'd also like to add that, even had they scored the TD, it didn't guarantee a win.  Additionally, he got stuffed and the line judge blew the whistle.  It was pretty damn clear.
•  BYU 17-14.  They are a 7-5 independent with top 5 scoring defense.  Additionally, they were appropriately coined a 'trap game' between Stanford and Oklahoma.  Again, nothing to write home about with these guys, but they are similar to Miss State or Vandy or Louisiana Tech as 'tough teams'.
• Oklahoma 30-13.  Another top ten opponent.  This time it's a top-flight offense and strong defense.  We held the 5th best passing offense and 7th best scoring offense to 13 points.  No SEC team faced a better offensive unit.
•  USC 22-13.  USC had enough talent to warrant a #1 preseason rating.  They only had a 7-5 record because Lane Kiffin is a moron. 

Absolute Cupcakes (1):

• Navy 50-10.  Although they were 8-4, and a bowl-bound FBS team, they beat 0 good teams and were pretty bad... at least they are a FBS school, but I'll call them what they were this year.

BCS Opponents with losing records (2):

• Wake/BC - Both comfortable wins against our two worst opponents.  

BCS Opponents with .500 records (2 or 3):

• MSU 20-3.  MSU was ranked in the top 10 when we played them at night in their place. Their 5 non-ND losses are by a total of 13 points and they have the nation's 10th rated scoring defense.  This is about as tough as it gets for a .500 team.
• Purdue  20-17.  I'll note that this was Golson's first home start and ND had just returned from Dublin.  I wonder if their sluggish performance had anything to do with jetlag.  Regardless, the chemistry of this team was becoming evident as Rees came in for an injured Golson and got the winning points.
• Pitt 29-26 in 3 OT.  Pitt had a strong finish after a slow start under a new coach.  They just thrashed 18th ranked Rutgers 27-6.  While everybody's pointing out that Pitt missed a FG that would have won the game, they conveniently forget that Cierre Wood fumbled the ball reaching for the endzone as he was about to score... and that was the 3rd redzone turnover of the game for the Irish, not to mention the missed FG and missed extra point earlier in the game.  This was one of those games in which they made all of the mistakes that you simply can't make in order to win games... but THIS team overcame the mistakes and found a way to win when they played their worst football of the season for 3 quarters.

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Okay, if you've gotten this far, I commend you.  I wrote this to simply illustrate something that should be patently obvious at this point.  ND can play with ANYBODY.  The SEC, while they have featured the last 6 national champions, is not necessarily the juggernaut that they want to believe that they are.  Every single one of the top tier of SEC teams played half of their games against cupcakes or teams with losing records.  The two most likely opponents for ND played the fewest amount of tough opponents on this list.  I'm really liking ND's chances in this game.  I am not an SEC fan, so I will make no silly guarantees that ND will destroy whomever they play in Miami, but I am loving the fact that SEC country is underestimating this Irish squad.  Bring it ON!

Leprechaun, out!